LeBron James · Free Agency 2026 · Decision Day Watch
Where does the King land?
Polymarket's “NBA: LeBron James Next Team” market — $30M traded — versus Kalshi (~$137M) and Predict.fun ($3.1M).
The 30-day race
POLYMARKET IMPLIED PROBABILITY · 3H CANDLES
Three venues, one leader
POLYMARKET LIVE · KALSHI & PREDICT.FUN SNAPSHOTS JUL 18 PM ET
Read as a ranking, not a normalized distribution — these are separate binary books with rounding and bid–ask effects, and displayed prices can sum above 100%. Values right: Polymarket / Kalshi / Predict.fun.
When does he announce?
POLYMARKET “SIGNS BY” CONTRACTS · LIVE-BAKED JUL 20
Kalshi's equivalent book puts 77% on “before July 26.” Note the impossibility below: July 27 priced above August 3 — see the consistency checks.
Under the hood: the order book
POLYMARKET CLOB · SNAPSHOT JUL 20 · 10:30 AM ET
Takeaway: a market with $30M of cumulative turnover holds only four to five figures of resting liquidity near the touch. A single motivated trader with ~$10K can move the favorite several points — which is how Saturday's 33-point Miami swing happened without a single confirmed report. Depth = resting orders within 5¢ of best bid/ask.
Do the books agree with each other?
CROSS-MARKET CONSISTENCY CHECKS · JUL 20
Related contracts
POLYMARKET SIDE MARKETS · SNAPSHOT JUL 18 · MUCH THINNER THAN THE DESTINATION BOOKS
Sign-by contracts are nested deadlines, not mutually exclusive buckets. “Thin” describes market depth, not the outcome's likelihood — fragile prices, wide error bars.
Every move, explained
EACH PRICE SWING MATCHED TO ITS NEWS CATALYST · 3-WEEK LOG
Reads like a receipt for the market: every 10+ point swing has a sourced explanation, and the days without one are labeled “narrative cascade” for a reason.
The read
MARKET PRICE VS OUR FAIR VALUE · JUL 18
The direction is right; the magnitude is an overshoot. The Saturday spike has no confirmed leak behind it — it's a cascade off McMenamin's “Eastern Conference” comment amplified by thin weekend liquidity.
But the signal is real. Windhorst and McMenamin — the two reporters closest to LeBron's camp for two decades — both tilted Miami in the same 48 hours. LeBron's stated criterion is “compete at a high level,” and with Giannis, Bam, and Spoelstra, Miami is the stronger title vehicle.
Cleveland isn't dead. The Sunday fade proved Saturday was an overshoot, Bill Simmons still calls the Cavs the real favorite, and this market has been confidently wrong twice already this month (GSW 47%→13%, CLE 58%→24%).
The tell to watch: the Bronny co-roster market at 7.5%. If a Cleveland storybook were locked in with a Bronny trade attached, that contract is wildly mispriced — more likely, traders know the father-son act is over, which removes Cleveland's most romantic argument.
Miami 44 / Cleveland 34 — tighter than the board says, and the thin order book means the first credible report moves everything 20 points. Watch Shams and Windhorst's phrasing, not the price.